Monday, November 06, 2006

So will climate change your life?

The answer seems to be "Yes! Immediately! In all sorts of terrible ways! We must act NOW!"
Maybe. I've created this blog because I believe that people are in danger of overstating the case. I don't deny we've got a problem, I just don't believe that we can be so specific about what it is, and what we can do about it.
I think we're ignoring a bigger and more immediate problem - Peak Oil. Peak Oil is where the oil begins to run out - where the price goes up and we go short. And the price goes on going up. I predict that we'll see $100/barrel by Christmas, and that will just be the start. At least if we can't afford to start our cars we won't be emitting any CO2!

What do you think about global warming and climate change? Is it the biggest threat to human civilisation, or "the biggest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people" ?

2 comments: said...

Hi Anthony,

Well, we've probably all seen some freakish weather over the years, and up til now, I haven't seen that as a proof per se of climate change. This autumn, however, has.
It is still 15 degrees now in early December, and again, all sorts of records are smashed to bits. It makes me think about the movie 'The day after tomorrow' more than I like.
More importantly though, if practicaly all independent or government financed scientists agree that climate change exists, and practically all people who deny it can either be traced back to lobby clubs owned by oil companies or sport suggestive scientific titles that are not theirs to carry, well, is there room still then for a qualitative & serious discussion on the existence of the climate change effect?


Anthony Day said...

Thanks for your comment. I agree with you that climate change is a reality. Whether it's caused by CO2 from fossil fuels, sunspots or natural cycles is largely irrelevant: we have to accept and live with it. Where I think there's scope for debate is on exactly how climate change and its consequences will play out. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - the United Nations body that drew up the Kyoto Accord - foresaw a whole range of possibilities. In their Third Assessment Review they had 40 different scenarios, depending on how the world economy developed and how the oceans, icecaps and forests reacted. They predicted a temperature rise of between 1.4C and 5.8C for the coming century. We need to monitor the behaviour of the climate and adapt our behaviour accordingly. There is no one simple answer, so while we should not do nothing, we should not do too much until we know what effect we are having.