Let There Be Water

To hear this as a podcast go to iTunes or susbiz.biz

Yes, it’s Friday 15th January 2016 and this is Anthony Day with the latest Sustainable Futures Report. You can also hear me later today on Voice America in an interview with Chris Cooper. The link is at http://www.voiceamerica.com/show/1959/ and it will be live at 4pm….

But first, this week I’m looking at a new book by Seth M. Siegel about how Israel has made the best of very limited water resources and is now sharing expertise - and water - with countries all over the world.  More unexpected consequences of the York floods and why controlling carbon emissions may not be the answer to climate change but geo-engineering perhaps is.  Apologies from Jeremy Leggett. And HS2. Is it really sustainable transport?

River levels in York are now below 3 metres. Well above normal but still well below the 5.2 metre peak on Boxing Day. Apart from a period of 36 hours, the river bank in front of my house has been under water since 9th November. It’s just beginning to clear. Several unexpected - and potentially serious - consequences that I didn’t mention last week. First, although the 999 emergency service was always available the 101 non-emergency service went down when the telephone exchange was flooded. Secondly, BBC Radio York kept broadcasting news, information and alternative non-emergency numbers, but they themselves were taken off air when the exchange went down and the team had to travel the 40-odd miles to broadcast from the studios of BBC Radio Hull.  I wonder if the council or the Environment Agency should get a siren, like they had in the war. Some of the law courts were flooded and hearings have been transferred to Leeds until further notice.

Although there are shops and restaurants in the city which will be closed for the next few months, most of York is trading as normal. Please don’t stay away.

After COP21, the Climate Change conference in Paris, everyone came away agreeing that carbon emissions were to be reduced, although nobody actually specified how this would be achieved. This week 11 academics wrote an open letter saying that 

“the actions agreed are far too weak to get anywhere close to [the] target. Furthermore, the pledges countries have made to cut their carbon emissions are not sufficiently binding to ensure they are met, while the Paris Agreement will not force them to “ratchet” them up as often as they need to.” 

They go on, 

“The hollow cheering of success at the end of the Paris Agreement proved yet again that people will hear what they want to hear and disregard the rest. What they disregarded were the deadly flaws lying just beneath its veneer of success.” 

Strong stuff!

The alternative solution which they reluctantly propose is geo-engineering. This means taking direct action to influence the climate. There are several ways of doing this. Ships could patrol the oceans spraying seawater up into the clouds to make them thicker and make them reflect more sunlight back into space. Other ships could sprinkle iron particles across the seas to stimulate the growth of plankton which would absorb CO2. We could release sulphates into the stratosphere, which would cause global dimming and reduce the amount of heat reaching the earth. We could put mirrors into orbit, mirrors into deserts or paint everybody’s roof white. Or just grow more trees. The fact that they propose these radical measures indicates how serious they believe the situation to be. The problem is that nobody can be absolutely sure how these ideas will work. Some of them, like planting trees, will take many years to have any effect. Which countries will be in control of these systems, and won’t they want to favour their own territories even at the expense of other nations? And if everything goes wrong, we’ve only got the one planet. 

Jeremy Leggett sends his apologies because the final chapter of his book, The Winning of the Carbon War, was not ready on 5th January as promised. He’s still writing up his account of COP21. He has circulated an extract, which shows him much more optimistic than the geo-engineers. The book is a free download from jeremyleggett.net. I’ve been following it chapter by chapter each month since January 2015. You should read it.

Let there be water

Sao Paolo in Brazil is one of the largest cities in the world, with a population of some 20 million. After two years of drought there is a water shortage. Supplies are turned off for a time most days. In some parts of the city the pipes run dry every day and for extended periods. Thousands of people are drilling private wells with the risk of polluting the aquifers beneath the city. Some citizens are buying in bottled water. Some are breaking into the mains and stealing water. Some are just leaving. With failing rains and a poorly managed infrastructure the situation is getting worse. Although it’s midsummer in Sao Paolo at the moment and thunderstorms are forecast for this afternoon. Let’s hope they’re heavy. It’s suggested that the drought is linked to deforestation in the Amazon. Water is transpired into the atmosphere through the leaves of the trees. This water forms aerial rivers of concentrated water vapour which flow towards the coast. The vapour condenses out over the land and brings rain. Fewer trees, less rain. The problem is that Brazilian agricultural policies encourage deforestation. Many hectares have been cleared, many more have been damaged and the process continues.

Things are not quite so bad across the world in California, although that state is approaching its fifth year of drought and declared a state of emergency at the start of 2015. Agriculture is the principal user of California’s water and the principal casualty of the drought. For example, 10% of the state’s almond trees have died. Serious, when you consider that 80% of the world’s almonds are California-grown. “Brown is the new green” is the motto as residents let their lawns die and some even fill in their swimming pools.

In the UK, particularly in the North, people have had enough of rain which has been falling for weeks . They’ve had enough of floods which will continue to impact homes and businesses for many months to come. Hard to picture a drought, but even here in the UK, particularly in the South, floods can rapidly turn to drought, hosepipe bans and a shortage of clean, drinkable water.

“Let there be water”, a new book by Seth M Siegel, has lessons for all these situations. The book is an account of how Israel, a country which is largely desert, has developed and managed its water resources. The book starts with history, looks at demand for water, examines sources of supply and explains how Israel’s expertise helps other countries.

Once the Israeli state had been established the first priority was the construction of the National Water Carrier. This is a 130 kilometre pipeline, completed in 1964, taking water from the Sea of Galilee in the relatively rainy North to the farms in the deserts of the South. As in many countries, agriculture is the principal user of water. The more efficient agriculture could become, the more water could be available for homes and industry. “Don’t waste even a drop” is a mantra embedded in the Israeli character. Don’t waste a drop at home, in public and or anywhere that water is used. 

Traditionally fields are watered either by flooding or by sprinkling. Flood irrigation needs a network of pumps, channels and sluices and typically 50% of the water is lost to evaporation or sinks into the ground before can be absorbed by the roots. Plants need both air and water at their roots, so flood irrigation means they are either waterlogged and stressed or parched and stressed. Sprinkler irrigation needs less infrastructure but it’s not an ideal solution. It’s difficult to deliver consistent amounts of water across a whole field and up to 35% is again lost to evaporation before it hits the ground.

Israeli scientists came up with drip irrigation: small, measured drops of water continually delivered direct to each plant. Not only did this deliver water savings of 50% - 60%, it improved yields over all other methods of irrigation. Further yield improvements were achieved by developing plants which would tolerate arid conditions through selective breeding.

Managing demand is one side of the equation: managing supply is the other. Israel is unique in the world in re-using around 95% of the nation’s sewage. The initial project was to concentrate the  sewage from seven cities into a central treatment plant. Water from the plant then flows through natural sand dunes, sinking over a period of 6 to 12 months into a natural aquifer some 100 metres below the surface. This filtering process delivers cleaned water which is transported via a 50-mile pipeline to the farms for irrigation. The supply of treated water from the sewage plant is more reliable than rainfall.

The third source of water, after the National Water Carrier and sewage treatment, is desalination, the removal of salt from water to make it drinkable. Desalination is widely used in the Middle East but is recognised as very expensive because of the energy inputs required. In Israel desalination is used for converting both sea water and brackish water, which is river water or underground water that contains unacceptable levels of salt. Israeli engineers first developed new energy-efficient techniques for desalination and then the reverse osmosis process which produces higher-quality water than other techniques and at lower cost. Before the Israeli state was established, when Britain controlled Palestine it discouraged immigration because it believed that water resources could support no more than two million inhabitants. By carefully managing the supply and demand for water Israel now supports not the 2 million people that the British thought was the maximum, but over 8 million.

The book covers all these stages in great detail, analysing the challenges, the personalities and the politics. It describes how Israeli water management techniques have been used all over the world, with desalination plants built by them in India, China and California, and governments advised in over 100 countries. It warns how countries that squander their water, some of which expelled Israeli advisors after revolutionary regime change, now face economic collapse. Remember, we’re all in very long supply chains. It may be out of sight, it may be out of mind, but you’ll certainly feel the effects if someone along your supply chain runs out of water.

“Let there be Water, Israel’s solution to a water-starved world” is a book worth reading for its perspective on water as a key element of a sustainable world. It’s not currently sold in the UK, but not difficult to find on line. 

This is Anthony Day with your weekly Sustainable Futures Report. Let’s talk transport.

In December I attended the Sustainable Futures Forum presented by Birmingham City University with Birmingham City Council. Craig Wakeman, HS2 Programme Manager, spoke on sustainable transport. He told us that HS2, the planned high-speed rail link from London to Birmingham, would cut the time for the 120-mile journey to just 49 minutes. A lot of people have criticised the time-saving and suggested that it was unnecessary and that people could simply start earlier. In response I have heard supporters of HS2 say that the fundamental justification for the new line is to increase capacity, and if a new line is to be built the marginal cost of making it high-speed is small. Craig Wakeman did not make this point, he just emphasised the improved journey time. 

He told us that HS2 would be the biggest civil engineering project in Europe and the biggest archaeological dig. It would lead to a transformation of skills and employment across the region. 34,000 engineers will be needed. To meet this demand it will be necessary to develop skills and re-skill the existing workforce. Apart from engineers and archaeologists the project will need landscape architects, project managers, programme managers, accountants, lawyers and a whole range of other skilled workers. There will be a National College of High-speed Rail with campuses in Birmingham and in Doncaster with the potential to develop a world-class and global reputation. The implications for the supply chain are immense. Just outside Birmingham are the headquarters of JCB, one of the world’s largest manufacturers of earthmoving equipment. Their key suppliers are located within a 50 mile radius. When Craig explained that the cost of the tracks, systems, stations and trains would amount to some £39 billion the implications for Birmingham and the West Midlands were clear. No surprise at the many smiling delegates at the conference.

I was left with a number of questions. First, how can this be sustainable? The largest civil engineering project in Europe is likely to have the largest carbon footprint, rivalling even Heathrow and Drax Power Station. How is all of this to be offset? And the £39 billion will have to be paid back over time from train fares. Do we need to do all that travel? Will we be able to afford fares that will be high enough to pay off the costs as well as all the running costs? Critics have claimed that the line will benefit London rather than the regions. Certainly, if it takes only 49 minutes to get to Birmingham from London it will bring Birmingham into the London commuter belt, no doubt with upward pressure on Birmingham property. As I have said before, I would prefer to see the East-West rail links from Hull through York, Leeds and Manchester to Liverpool upgraded before we look at a north-south high-speed link. Sustainable transport? What do you think?

Before I go I want to tell you about the Sustainable Best Practice Exchange. It takes place in Harrogate on 14th April, so please put that in your diary. We have four themes: energy, supply chain, skills and economic development. We have four panels of experts to talk about the challenges and opportunities in these fields. We will start the day with a ministerial keynote. I'm not quite sure which minister, although negotiations have been going on since July and are now at an advanced stage. We will also have a series of roundtable discussions. These will be facilitated by either one of the panel members or by another expert. This is your chance to share your challenges, knowledge and experience with your peers round the table. Full details will appear on the conference website which will be launched next week. I'll let you have the link then.

And that's it for another week. This is Anthony Day thanking you once again for listening to the Sustainable Futures Report. There will be another Sustainable Futures Report next week. Until then, have a good week, and bye for now.

Northern Floods - a Case Study

The Sustainable Futures Report podcast published on Friday 8th January 2016.

This week I take stock of the recent floods and look at them as a case study in sustainability. I can speak with some first hand experience because I live in York. Although we have a riverside house we were always at least 2m above the water. York made all the headlines over Christmas, but people in Cumbria had already been flooded three times in December, buildings had been washed away in Manchester and there were floods in Scotland and Wales. As I write this, further floods are expected in Scotland. Elsewhere floods have devastated parts of South America, tornadoes have destroyed houses in the US and Texas has been coping with snow. 

View from my window

Unseasonal and violent weather looks very like the consequences of climate change, but the purpose of this episode is to look at how people have been affected, to highlight the unforeseen consequences and to understand where plans failed or where plans didn’t even exist. To understand what we should do now. I will comment on the political reaction, but this is not a political message except to say that we are all affected by the consequences of political decisions. We must take them into account when we plan, and if we think it’s appropriate we should campaign to change them. That’s just one part of the supply chain. There’s a link to my Green Supply Chain Workshop video on the website here .

On 15th January - next Friday - I’m appearing on the Voice America Business Elevation Show. There’s a link for more details here.

Parts of York flood every year. Most properties are defended and the damage is usually small and has little effect on most of the city. On Christmas Eve the Independent newspaper published a front page photo of a cyclist in ankle-deep water on the edge of the River Ouse with a caption claiming that York city centre was flooded. I sent them this letter:

“Nice picture of York on today's front page but you should know that the Ouse floods like this every year. Very few properties affected and certainly none in the city centre. You've misreported this previously!

Cumbria is where the problem is, but perhaps that's too far north for you Southerners. “

And they published it on Boxing Day. Ironically, within 24 hours the centre of York had suffered its worst flooding for 30 years.

What happened was this. Just below the city centre the River Foss joins the River Ouse. The Ouse is by far the bigger river, so when it is in flood it not only prevents the Foss from draining into the Ouse, but it backs up and causes the Foss to break its banks. This is what happened up until 30 years ago when they built the Foss Barrier. The barrier is lowered in times of flood and eight pumps keep the level of the Foss down by pumping its water around the barrier and into the Ouse. Worked perfectly in 2000, for example, when water levels rose higher than they did last week. However, on Boxing Day the pumps, with a rated output of 30 cubic metres/second, that’s 30 tonnes of water per second, were unable to keep up. The pumps are electric and the water rose to a level which threatened the control room. If it had got any higher and the pumps had stopped, with the barrier closed the Foss would have kept on rising and flooding more and more of York. While there was still power, the decision was taken to prevent this by opening the barrier. Of course this meant that the Ouse rushed in and some 600 properties were rapidly flooded. 

It appears that this was a Black Swan - an event that nobody had foreseen but perfectly logical in hindsight. Although there had been warnings for some years that it was time to upgrade the pumps. Nevertheless, because opening the barrier was considered so improbable there does not seem to have been a contingency plan. The consequences were far more widespread than anybody expected. Many residents were not evacuated until the middle of the night and had to be taken out by boat. For many of them it was too late to move their cars before they were submerged. For those whose houses and businesses were flooded the consequences are immense. 40% of businesses never recover from a flood. In flooded homes the downstairs furniture, carpets and appliances are destroyed. It can take six months to a year to dry the house out and it may be necessary to remove and replace contaminated plaster on the walls. Some people are insured, but with insurance assessors rushed off their feet they certainly won’t get immediate  payouts. If they have maxed out their credit cards for Christmas they could have serious cash flow problems. Some people are not insured at all. And other people looted the abandoned properties. I’m quite ashamed to say I live in a place where that would happen.

The barrier was repaired very quickly with extra pumps and generators airlifted in by Chinook helicopter. By Wednesday the Foss was pumped almost dry, ready to contain the next flood surge, but by then the damage had been done. The government has appointed a Floods Envoy and has promised £40m to Yorkshire, although repairs in York will take £10m alone.

In York the telephone exchange is on the bank of the River Foss. The floods knocked it out. For 36 hours there were no landlines, no internet and limited mobile reception. In turn this meant that many ATMs in the city stopped working and businesses could not accept card payments because their terminals wouldn’t work either. In any case business was very slow in York in the week after Christmas. The crowds of sale shoppers largely stayed away. With no internet I thought I might have to travel to Leeds to upload last week’s episode although it came back on in time. Getting to the station would have been a problem. Many roads were flooded so the only way from one side of town to the other was via the bypass - a 5 or 6 mile drive instead of a half-mile walk.

Let me add a personal story. The weekend before Christmas our daughter and family came to stay. Somehow - nobody saw - our 7-year-old granddaughter managed to fall over in the lounge and break her arm in two places. This was Sunday night. We drove her to A&E. She was seen immediately, X-rayed and had an operation under general anaesthetic to set the bones. She was kept in overnight and returned in the morning with plaster from shoulder to palm. The NHS is truly wonderful. Now think what could have happened a week later. 

• No phones to call an ambulance.
• Roads blocked so we would have spent time trying to find a route before heading out to the bypass and back in to the other side of the city - probably an hour’s journey rather than 10 minutes.
• At the hospital, if the power was down there would have been an emergency generator, but would that provide enough power for X-rays?
• If a specialist was needed but was not on site there would have been no phones to call him in. The chain of consequences from the flood is long.

Just down the road from York, Tadcaster sits on the River Wharfe. This week floodwater partially demolished the 300-year-old bridge which joins the two halves of the town, fracturing a gas main. Houses were evacuated while gas engineers sorted that out. The bridge cannot be used, even by pedestrians. There is a muddy footpath that crosses the river on an abandoned railway viaduct, but that’s all. Vehicles have to go out to the A64 and come back to get from one side of the town to the other, but it’s not as simple as it might sound. The A64 is the main Leeds-York dual carriageway and there is a junction on the Leeds side of the town and another on the York side. The problem is that one of these is a one-way junction. This means that drivers on the Leeds side of town who want to go to the York side need to join the A64 but have to pass the town and pass the junction where York-bound traffic from Tadcaster joins the road because there is no exit there. They carry on to the next roundabout and then come back again to the slip road which takes them into the town. Diversions of 16 miles or 20km have been reported. There were plans to close the A64 for extensive resurfacing from 4th January, but I understand that the Highways Agency have agreed to put this on hold. What’s the cost of standing down the labour, the plant and the materials which must have been all ready to carry out a project scheduled to last several weeks? Another unforeseen consequence. And the bridge is expected to cost £3m to repair and to take a year.

These are my local examples. I’m sure other people have had it equally bad or worse in other parts of the UK - and in the world.

The point of recounting all this is to look at lessons to be learned, for any business, organisation or individual. Some of these events could be defined as something which Nassim Nicholas Taleb would call a Black Swan: something so improbable that no-one would see it coming, but which often looks perfectly reasonable with hindsight. For more on black swans see his book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, available from your favourite bookshop. 

But some events are unforeseen because no-one has sat down and not only considered their immediate risks but also looked at the consequences of those risks. People in York might have known that they were safe from flooding whatever the weather, but failed to realise that the telephone exchange was right on the edge of the river and could go down and cause them problems. It’s all part of the supply chain. Of course the Foss Barrier has successfully protected the city for 30 years, in floods even higher than these. Clearly nobody believed that the exchange was at risk. Homes and businesses were nevertheless affected by the loss of telephone lines and internet. If consumers cannot access ATMs and merchants cannot use card terminals then business stops. It’s a supply chain issue - do you remember my green supply chain workshop? There’s a link to the video at susbiz.biz. The message is that you may or may not be the weakest link in the supply chain, but if there is a weak link it can be very damaging to your business for no fault of yours. You need to protect yourself if you can. Have you carried out a strategic risk analysis recently? Remember, not all risks are overnight disasters like floods. Some are more subtle and take much longer to take effect. Changes in technology, demographics, weather patterns, fashions can all damage your business. The danger is that these changes can be slow and subtle and that you will wait for things to get back to normal before you realise that this is the new normal. By then it could be too late.

As I said earlier, 40% of flooded businesses never recover and flooded homes take 6 months to a year to be made habitable, quite apart from the financial hardship that everyone will suffer. We can only sympathise, and if the opportunity arises, offer help to these people. There are several hardship appeals across the country. Meanwhile, how sure are you that your business is secure? You may not be in a flood plain. Your challenges might come from a completely different dimension. You owe it to yourself - and your colleagues and staff - to give some thought to your own security. You could start with a green supply chain workshop, tailored to your organisation. Or just with a chat. I’m on 07803 616877 or email at mail@anthony-day.com

I’m Anthony Day and this latest edition of the Sustainable Futures Report draws to a close. Just time to remind you that the Sustainable Best Practice Exchange - Powering the Northern Powerhouse - takes place in Harrogate on 14th April, so put it in your diary. We have invited a minister and hope to get either Amber Rudd from DECC or James Wharton, minister for the Northern Powerhouse. I’ll keep you informed. The conference website opens shortly and if you’re a member of a professional association you’re entitled to a discount. If your professional association or institute has not yet signed up for this benefit tell them to give me a call - 07803 616877 or mail@anthony-day.com. 

The next Sustainable Futures Report will be out next Friday. I’m probably going to talk about water.

This is Anthony Day. 

This is the end of another Sustainable Futures Report. Have a great week!

COP21 The Talking Continues

An audio version of this episode was published on 11th December 2015 and is available at www.susbiz.biz

This week the Energy Minister and the Prime Minister have been under fire as COP21 moves forward. While the main negotiating sessions continue, many other meetings take place as well. Mark Carney of the Bank of England has a view. The group of 77 nations  (G77) plus China has a view as well, and so do the 48 Least-Developed Countries. Caroline Lucas of the Green Party is concerned. Can we standardise climate change? Is emissions trading the answer? George Monbiot believes that that's attacking the problem from the wrong end. Jeremy Leggett is not at all happy with Minister Amber Rudd as you will learn from the latest chapter of his book, and the week will end with a massive march through the streets of Paris. I’m a member of iema and that entitles me to a daily update on the conference from the environmentalist magazine. Non-members can subscribe at  environmentalistonline.com. But we have our own man on the spot in Paris. You’ll hear from Richard Lane later on.

First of all: it’s beginning look a bit like - 99p for a litre of petrol by Christmas. The oil price has fallen 60% since summer 2014 and Goldman Sachs are still predicting the $20 barrel. This week Brent crude was at $42 and West Texas Intermediate down to $38. Since 2011 the Chancellor has suspended the fuel price escalator. In the face of falling oil prices an additional 1p on a litre of petrol or diesel would be pretty painless. But the government estimates that freezing the escalator has reduced taxation income by some £23bn over the life of the last Parliament. Isn’t that approximately twice what the Chancellor intends to take out of the welfare budget? You can make up your own mind as to whether this was the right place make cuts.

The Prime Minister and cabinet members have been criticised this week for flying to the Paris climate change talks, rather than taking the more environmentally friendly Eurostar train. David Cameron and Energy and Climate Change Secretary Amber Rudd flew the short trip to the opening day of the talks last Monday. International Development Secretary Justine Greening and her team also took a flight for her short trip to the COP21 talks on Saturday

According to Eurostar, a short haul return flight from Heathrow to Charles de Gaulle airport emits 122 kilograms of CO2 per person, compared with the 10.9 kg CO2 emitted per Eurostar passenger travelling from St Pancras to the centre of Paris. On such a short journey, city centre to city centre times are likely to be shorter by train than by air. Most of the team went back by train, so perhaps the criticism worked.

According to Independent Catholic News, Catholic campaigners have called on the UK government to heed the message of Pope Francis as the Secretary of State arrives in Paris to join the second week of the climate talks.

"David Cameron's speech last Monday,” they say, “called for a strong deal that guarantees adequate climate finance for the world's most vulnerable people and a five year review mechanism to measure and improve progress. We look forward to Amber Rudd rolling her sleeves up and getting involved to make this deal happen."

And Caroline Lucas of the Green Party has a message for Amber Rudd as well. Her open letter to the minister starts like this:

“HUMAN RIGHTS AND GENDER EQUALITY IN THE PARIS AGREEMENT ON CLIMATE CHANGE

“I am writing to express my concern regarding reports from the COP21 negotiations that the language on respect for human rights and gender equality is at risk of being removed entirely from the operative section of the Paris Agreement. Climate change represents a gross social injustice, and establishing overarching principles of climate justice, human rights and gender equality at the heart of the climate agreement will be a prerequisite for effective climate action. I urge you to ensure that the UK in particular is playing a constructive role in upholding a strong EU position on this issue.”

Paul Polman, chief executive of Unilever, aims to make the company "carbon positive" by 2030, using only renewable energy. He didn’t mention Amber Rudd. Well, not directly.

Speaking to BBC News this week he said he was concerned that the government's decision to remove financial support for wind and solar power would send the wrong signal. Subsidies cannot be permanent, but equally they should not be withdrawn at short notice. There is a risk that cutting subsidies sends the wrong message to investors, who are looking for stability. The government has been inconsistent. 

“We deal with 2bn consumers every day,” says Polman. “No government deals with 2bn consumers. If we are all to achieve our targets, government and business must work together.”

It seems pretty clear that without private sector support, governments will struggle.

So what’s been happening in Paris? Apart from the governmental negotiations there are many other organisations which have come to Paris to lobby and discuss climate change. A great deal has happened. For example,

Ninety businesses and 19 governments have signed up to a World Bank coalition to support the introduction of carbon prices. BT Group, EDF, Lafarge, Nestlé, SSE, Unilever and Veolia are among the companies joining the coalition, which will collect and share best practice, mobilise business support and convene talks with global leaders to overcome barriers to more widespread use of carbon pricing. 

They are backed by the governments of Sweden, the Netherlands, Ethiopia and Mexico, among others. Canadian environment minister Catherine McKenna announced that the country’s government, elected last month, would support the coalition. 

World Bank president Jim Yong Kim pointed to China’s plans to introduce a carbon price in 2017, and said: “Anyone who wants to do business with China will have to change the way they work.”

According to the Financial Times, the preferred solution is a cap and trade system. Such schemes already exist. EU ETS, the European union emissions trading scheme, is an example. Unfortunately, it's a bad example because it has done nothing to reduce carbon emissions. Cap and trade involves governments issuing carbon credits which are effectively a licence to emit carbon dioxide. The idea is that the cost of extra credits will put a burden on old and dirty plants, reduce their viability and lead them to be phased out. More efficient plants will need less credits and may even have a surplus to sell, giving them a financial and competitive advantage. In practice, EU ETS has been subject to fraud and manipulation. The price of carbon credits, which has collapsed to less than €4 per tonne, provides  little incentive to industry to clean up.

This week the International Standards Organisation (ISO) and the Greenhouse Gas Management Institute (GHGMI) held a panel discussion on the sidelines of the Paris talks. 

Tom Bauman, co-founder of the GHGMI and chair of a technical committee working on climate change mitigation and adaptation standards at the ISO, said that it had received a large number of requests over the past 18 months for new climate change standards. 

Nick Blyth, policy and practice lead at IEMA, said that the demand for new standards was driven partly by a general increase in awareness of the impacts of climate change as well as the publication of the revised ISO 14001 environmental management standard. The revised 14001: 2015 standard requires organisations to consider the impact of the environment, including climate change, on their operations as well as their impact on the environment.

“The revised ISO 14001 should introduce more people to climate change, which will then lead them into the scope of other GHG standards,” he said. 

More than 324,000 organisations worldwide were certified to 14001 in 2014, according to the ISO’s latest figures. The high rate of use is bringing climate change into mainstream environmental management systems, Blyth added. 

The negotiations are not all about mitigation; measures to reduce or slow down climate change. They are also about dealing with the consequences. Discussions over which countries will pay for damage caused by climate change are slowing down negotiations, with the G77 plus China group issuing a new warning that the issue threatens chances of a deal.

The G77 plus China negotiating bloc, which now consists of 134 countries, including Saudi Arabia and South Africa, complained about attempts by developed countries to widen the pool of donor nations that would contribute finance. The developed nations argue that developing countries “in a position to do so” should also contribute to funds to pay for climate change damage. 

In a strongly worded statement, ambassador Nozipho Mxakato-Diseko of South Africa, which chairs the bloc, said: “The G77 and China is deeply concerned with the attempts to introduce economic conditions in the finance section currently under negotiation … Any attempt to replace the core obligation of developed countries to provide financial support to developing countries with a number of arbitrarily identified economic conditions is a violation of the rules-based multilateral process and threatens an outcome here in Paris.” 

Countries most at risk from climate change joined the debate and warned that there would be no overall agreement in Paris unless a mechanism to deal with the impacts of climate change beyond adaptation is agreed.

The Least Developed Countries (LDC) negotiating bloc comprises 48 of the world’s poorest countries including many African countries and low-lying island states. Its members face severe disasters from climate change that are predicted to cause damage for which adaptation will not be possible. This is known as “loss and damage” and includes salination of agricultural land and loss of land to the sea.

Pa Ousman Jarju, minister of environment and climate change for the Gambia, said: “We do not foresee an outcome in Paris without loss and damage. It is a red line for us.”

Jarju said that the bloc had been encouraged by some of the statements by world leaders made at the start of the Paris talks, but said that this had not filtered through to negotiations. “We have seen a lot of bracketing,” he said, referring to the practice of using square brackets throughout the draft text to indicate options on the table where no decision has been reached. More about this in a moment.

Last Friday, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, launched the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) to develop voluntary, consistent climate-related financial risk disclosures by companies. This would provide lenders, insurers, investors and other stakeholders with important long-term information, he said. Carney has already warned about the danger from stranded assets, fossil fuel reserves which cannot be exploited without emitting unsustainable levels of emissions and which are therefore potentially worthless.

The taskforce will be chaired by UN special envoy for climate change and former mayor of New York Michael Bloomberg. It will consider what constitutes effective corporate financial transparency on climate change to understand the physical, liability and transition risks, and will review and learn from existing disclosure processes. 

Paul Simpson, chief executive of the CDP, (formerly the Carbon Disclosure Project), which has been working on climate change-related disclosures for investors for 15 years, welcomed the announcement. “We see it as a way of elevating our work and some of the information we collect right into the heart of financial markets and central banks. Carney is governor of the Bank of England and chair of the Financial Stability Board so that’s a much stronger angle into banks on climate than there’s been before. It will take disclosures to the next level,” he said.  

Proposals by the Treasury to scrap regulations requiring companies to report greenhouse-gas emissions in their financial reports as part of its business energy efficiency tax review were very worrying, Simpson said. But these could now be under review following Carney’s high-profile speech to the city and the creation of the taskforce, he added. 

“We very much hope that due to Carney’s focus on this issue, Osborne and the Treasury will see sense and realise that investors need this information, in fact they need more information than just GHG emissions. We’re hopeful that it will cause a u-turn from Osborne.” 

Not another u-turn, surely.

More than 100 companies including Ikea, Coca-Cola, Walmart and Kellogg have pledged to set emissions reduction targets in line with scientific assessments on how to keep temperature rises below 2°C.

Corporate science-based targets are being advocated by a coalition consisting of the World Resources Institute (WRI), the CDP, the UN Global Compact and WWF.

Speaking at a side-event on science-based targets at the UNFCCC talks in Paris, Kevin Moss, business centre director at the WRI, said typically, companies would set emission reduction targets in line with what they thought they could achieve, and then stretched themselves slightly so they knew they would meet the target.

“Science-based targets start with the principle that what we are trying to do is solve the problem of catastrophic climate change and there isn’t really a half way point to avoiding catastrophic climate change, you’re either on a trajectory to meet it or you’re not.

“If you’re making the effort to reduce emissions, it’s worth making that little bit extra effort to avoid catastrophic climate change,” he said.

A new draft agreement was announced at COP21 this week. I heard that the previous 50 pages had been reduced to 20. The copy I downloaded ran to 48 pages - still full of bracketed alternatives. For example:

. Article 2bis (GENERAL)

1. [All Parties [shall] regularly prepare, communicate [and implement] [intended] nationally determined [contributions][components] [on [mitigation] and adaptation]…

…you get the idea. And that’s just one clause. Still plenty to do before the close of business on 11th December. And I think it will take a long time to understand what the final agreement actually amounts to.

George Monbiot is a climate campaigner, a Guardian columnist and author. Last Friday he appeared on Any Questions, the BBC Radio 4 current affairs debate. He stated that the UK has a legal requirement to exploit fossil fuels, which seems totally at variance with managing emissions. I tracked this down to an article he wrote in January, referring to what is now the Infrastructure Act 2015. Article 41 of this Act is indeed headed “Maximising recovery of UK petroleum” and it requires the Secretary of State to produce one or more strategies for enabling that objective to be met. That’s the same secretary of state who is responsible for reducing carbon emissions. Also in the article, George Monbiot takes issue with the idea of reducing carbon emissions by penalising the consumer. Instead we should tax the producer of fossil fuels. In his words, “Let’s control carbon emissions at the wellhead, not the tailpipe.” Whether that will happen in Paris is open to question. For the moment a carbon cap and trade scheme seems more likely, with all its shortcomings.

I suggested last week that the US would resist any agreement that was legally binding. The good news is that President Obama said he would accept a legal obligation to review the progress towards carbon reduction every 5 years. That’s a start, but in my view reviews should begin much sooner and be more frequent. On the other hand, the Indian Environment Minister said that his country was embarking on a 10-year project and there would clearly be no need for review for 10 years. What business could set out on a 10-year plan without review? If there are any you’ve probably never heard of them because they failed in the first few years.

The latest episode of Jeremy Leggett’s book “The Winning of the Carbon War” came out this week. It’s a free download from jeremyleggett.net. It’s nearly finished. The last chapter will be out in January and will end with an assessment of what was achieved by COP21. Jeremy leads one of the original and biggest solar energy companies in the UK. He is has it in for Amber Rudd as well. Here’s a quotation from his latest chapter.

“The government is engaged in a scorched earth assault on solar now, it seems. They want no opposition to gas and oil, fracked from British shale or otherwise produced at home and abroad. They seem unembarrassable by their willingness to shovel large subsidies to shale and nuclear while torpedoing solar subsidies.

“Two days ago somebody in either the civil service or the Tory party leaked a letter from Amber Rudd to ministerial colleagues. It shows that in June, when she insisted that the UK was on track for its legally binding European commitment for renewables in the energy mix, she misled Parliament. Now she admits that the government is on course to miss the target by some distance. She suggests some shameful ways of wriggling out of the commitment, like somehow creating renewable energy credits abroad so as to claim the targets have been met.

“Today, facing calls for her resignation, she has given an interview insisting that she still has the confidence of the renewables sector. I know of no leader in the renewable sector whose view deviates much from derision. The whole spectacle has descended beyond farce.”

Well, all this is politics, horse-trading and shenanigans. Does it really matter to you, me and the man in the street what goes on in Whitehall or what gets decided in Paris? Yes, it does. Is there anything we can do about it? It’s the difference between mitigation and adaptation. Governments and global corporations can mitigate. You and I have to adapt. Having said that there are many brave people in Paris running parallel events and demonstrating their demands for a fair and effective agreement from COP21. The short-term interests of the less-than-1% cannot determine the futures of the rest of the world, they say. Next Saturday, 12th December, they take to the streets of Paris to demand that all countries should keep to the pledges made at COP21 and ideally do even better. No, I won’t be there. No excuses and I’ll probably regret it. It’s going to be part of history. I’ll be there in spirit.

One person who is there is Richard Lane, President of York Community Energy. Here’s his report:

"Basically: almost everything we're doing is wrong! The Clean Development Mechanism and the Green Climate Fund are both deeply suspect and causing the sort of popular resistance that we have seen when huge windfarms get imposed on people without their consent in the UK. The draft text of the Paris agreement only mentions the word "energy" once - that's in the phrase "International Atomic Energy Agency". The US has been fighting against the inclusion of a clause referring to the "loss and damage" due to climate change (which would of course signify the recognition of responsibility), but more recently has given way on this issue provided it is made clear that there will be no means to make them liable for any sort of reparation. The South African spokesperson of the G77 has been very outspoken, resulting in a lot of behind-the-scenes threats and pressure being applied to other G77 members to rein her in. At the moment it looks like this approach is being successful in breaking up the unity of developing countries.

"A new version of the text will be released on Wednesday 9th December. There is still hope that the final target could be 1.5degC but there is no hope of a legally binding treaty - or indeed any updating of INDCs that would get us closer to that from the current 3degC or so.

"I actually missed the daily debrief today because I was due to videocall in to the York Environment Forum meeting which nearly didn't work due to a combination of technical problems & lack of skill their end and difficult environment my end.

"I met a lot of activists in community energy - there are moves to try to connect up the community energy movement worldwide.”

More from Richard, I hope, later in the week.

Meanwhile, back at work, back in the office, are you confident of the future, or do you have a 10-year plan which means you don’t have to worry about anything for another 9 years or so? If you want a review before then, if you want to chat about sustaining your business and bolstering your competitive position for even more than the next 10 years, give me a call, especially if you’ve still got some mince pies left.

I’m Anthony Day and I’m on 07803 616877.

That was the Sustainable Futures Report. This is Anthony Day. There will be another episode next week.

COP21 - The Talking Begins

An audio version of this episode was published on 4th December and is available at susbiz.biz and on iTunes.

Yes, COP21, the Paris climate change conference, is finally here. No results expected before the end of next week so I'm going to take the opportunity to review what this conference means for us, for our businesses, for families and for our future. Also in this episode, the minister takes control of fracking, business views of the climate conference and plans for a ministry of the future.

Welcome to the Sustainable Futures Report, the new, improved and upgraded Sustainable Futures Show brought to you without advertising, sponsorship or subsidy. So I can say what I like.  And a special welcome to friends and listeners on their way to Paris to take part in the official or unofficial events surrounding COP21. It's Friday 4th December 2015 and this is Anthony Day with news, views and ideas, and by the way your news, views and ideas are very welcome and important. Please get in touch and share them. I’m at mail@anthony-day.com. 

First this week, what’s this COP21 conference all about then, and why is it important? It's the UN conference on Climate Change, it involves 195 countries and 145 of them sent their prime ministers or heads of state to the opening ceremony where they each reiterated their country's commitment to cutting green house gas emissions. It’s important to you because if these leaders take truly effective action it’s likely to drive up energy costs in the short term. They will have to put a price on carbon, which means taxing or surcharging anything which emits greenhouse gases. Petrol will be more expensive at the pump. It will cost more to heat your home. Those extra costs will be added to existing production and distribution costs. Almost anything you buy will cost more - from food to fashion, from pharmaceuticals to furniture. The alternative, according to the scientists, is catastrophic climate change: drought, famine, floods and failure of food supplies. At first this will be worst in the developing nations, but our supply chains are global. We’ll be affected by what happens in far-off countries of which we know little. To start with we’ll see higher prices. As the situation worsens we’ll see shortages. As distant nations become uninhabitable will see massive movements of refugees across the world; far, far more than the numbers causing so much argument at the moment. 

The solution is twofold - mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation to stop climate change getting worse: adaptation to cope with and control the effects that are already here. Adaptation involves financial support to the developing nations which are suffering the worst effects of climate change even though they have done little to cause it. An agreement on financial support to these nations by the developed nations will be an important outcome of COP21.

Mitigation, to stop climate change getting worse, depends on a radical change in the way we produce and use energy. Everyone can protect themselves against rising energy prices. Driving more slowly saves fuel. Turning down the thermostat and wearing an extra jumper saves gas. Insulation keeps your home warm for less. It’s more difficult with industrial processes. Bread won’t bake and chemical reactions won’t react except at specified temperatures. Perhaps the answer here is greater efficiency through economies of scale. Beyond that we have to look at new forms of supply which don’t involve burning fossil fuels. Despite scepticism, renewables are becoming more and more viable, producing 25% of the UK’s electricity for the third quarter of this year. I spoke last week about the solar power station in Morocco which stores heat in molten salt and can generate electricity 20 hours per day. Battery storage is becoming more efficient. Domestic stores are already available from Tesla in the US, Sonnen in Germany and Powervault in the UK. If you have solar panels you can save some of your energy for use at night. Energy can also be stored as heat as with the Moroccan power station, as potential energy as in the Dinorwic pump storage scheme in North Wales or stored in massive flywheels. Apart from wind turbines and solar panels, a 320MW tidal power station is planned for Swansea Bay and there is potential for geothermal energy all over the world, including parts of the UK. It’s time to invest in these new technologies. Actually, these generation technologies are not that new. It’s time to invest in developing, refining and perfecting them. It’s time to invest in storage science, like the lithium-air battery under development at Cambridge University.

The fact that the vast majority of the world's leaders took time out to travel to Paris shows they think climate change is important. On Sunday 29th November 50,000 people marched in London to show that they thought it was important too. But people marched not just in London, but all over the world. In more than 2,000 cities - a million of them. It's probably the biggest international march ever. Not in Paris, though. In view of the security situation marches were banned. Instead, people left shoes, thousands of pairs of shoes, in la Place de la République, to symbolise the march they would have made. The Pope sent a pair of shoes. So did UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon. What do all these people want, and what's in it for you? They all want nations to work together to stop global warming by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and thereby avoiding dangerous climate change. How are they going to do that? Good question. 

Of course the politicians have to balance short-term politics with the need to save the planet. At the opening ceremony of COP21 President Obama said

“I’ve come here personally, as the leader of the world’s largest economy and the second-largest emitter, to say that the United States of America not only recognises our role in creating this problem, we embrace our responsibility to do something about it.”

“Let’s show businesses and investors that the global economy is on a firm path towards a low-carbon future.  If we put the right rules and incentives in place, we’ll unleash the creative power of our best scientists and engineers and entrepreneurs to deploy clean energy technologies and the new jobs and new opportunities that they create all around the world.  There are hundreds of billions of dollars ready to deploy to countries around the world if they get the signal that we mean business this time.  Let’s send that signal.”

He went on to say,

“I believe, in the words of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., that there is such a thing as being too late.  And when it comes to climate change, that hour is almost upon us.  But if we act here, if we act now, if we place our own short-term interests behind the air that our young people will breathe, and the food that they will eat, and the water that they will drink, and the hopes and dreams that sustain their lives, then we won't be too late for them.”

In his speech, David Cameron asked what we would say to our grandchildren if the conference failed to reach an effective agreement.

“But they would ask us why is it difficult to reach a legally binding agreement when in 2015 there are already 75 countries …. that already have legally binding climate change legislation? …countries that are thriving with that legislation.”

“Why, they’d ask us, is it difficult to have a review after 5 years?

“Would we really be able to argue that it was too difficult?

Too difficult to transfer technology from rich countries to poorer countries?

Our grandchildren would rightly ask us: what was so difficult?

You had this technology, you knew it worked, you knew that if you gave it to poor and vulnerable countries they could protect themselves against climate change – why on earth didn’t you do it?

“What I’m saying,” said Mr Cameron, “is that instead of making excuses tomorrow to our children and grandchildren, we should be taking action against climate change today.”

Can’t argue with that.

But his grandchildren weren’t there to ask why his government has effectively banned new on-shore wind turbines, why it will only support new offshore turbines if they dramatically cut their costs, why it has cut the subsidy for clean solar energy at short notice, why it has terminated the low-carbon homes initiative, why it has modified the renewables obligation to work against renewable energy, why it has removed business start-up tax breaks from community energy projects and why it has withdrawn its financial support from carbon capture and storage, the only way of cleaning up coal and gas power stations. They weren’t there to ask why his government supports fracking, a technique for extracting carbon-emitting natural gas, either.

I expect somebody will ask those questions. Hopefully before it’s too late.

What can we expect from COP21? The majority of nations have submitted an INDC, an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. A contribution to reducing global GHG emissions. These documents take various forms - different starting points, different end points, different percentage reductions. They have been analysed and the overall effect, if they are all achieved, will be to limit global warming to a 2.7℃ temperature increase over pre-industrial levels. That’s more than the 2℃ which is widely considered the danger level, but much better than the current trend which is rising towards 4℃ or 5℃. An overall draft agreement has been submitted to the conference. As I mentioned in a previous episode, this is really just a template. Every word, every phrase, almost every comma is presented with an alternative. This will be negotiated over the coming days and will determine how the nations will fulfil their INDCs, although not the specific measures that each nation must take. For an insight into the negotiation process listen to “Can we trust the IPCC?”, an episode of the Sustainable Futures Report from November 2014. Search on IPCC at susbiz.biz . In this episode Professor Piers Forster, one of the lead authors of AR5, explains the pressures and compromises involved in agreeing the final text of that document.

David Cameron calls for a binding agreement and we must support him on that. Unfortunately, the word is that the Americans will not accept it. This is because they believe that climate sceptic Republicans would block such a measure.

COP21 rolls on until Friday next week. Since I record these episodes at least a day in advance I won't be able to report on the final outcome in the next scheduled episode. I may possibly issue a special supplementary report early in the following week, or I may defer the next episode altogether until then.

In the meantime I suggest you have a look at “The most terrifying video you'll ever see.” It isn’t really terrifying. It’s a clear and logical examination of whether we should take action on climate change and what would happen if we didn’t. It just looks at our options: climate change is either real or not real and we have the choice to take action or take no action. It’s been up on YouTube for several years and been viewed by over 6 million people. It’s just as relevant as it was when it was first posted. Here's the link: https://youtu.be/zORv8wwiadQ 

Still to come: business views on climate change and a clear view of the future. First, fracking.

The Rt Hon Greg Clark MP, Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government, has announced that he will make the decision on whether Cuadrilla can frack for shale gas in Lancashire. You will remember that Lancashire County Council refused permission back in the summer. The minister says he is now calling the case in and will make the decision himself in the national interest. Not unexpected. Greenpeace are raising a petition in protest but that’s unlikely to change anything.

There was nothing in the Autumn Statement about the proposals to slash feed-in tariffs, so I suppose that we must assume that they will go ahead.

Last Friday Greenpeace sent an open letter to David Cameron in support of renewable energy and asked the government to “commit and put forward policies to support the growth of the UK renewables sector through the 2020’s, consistent with the critical role of the power sector in addressing carbon budgets under the Climate Change Act.” This letter was jointly signed by Unilever, Vodaphone, Nestle, Thames Water, BT, IKEA, M&S, Kingfisher, Tesco and Panasonic.

Other business voices were raised as COP21 started. CBI, the Confederation of British Industry, has published a report on what it would like to see from the conference. 

Rhian Kelly, CBI Director of Business Environment policy, said:

“We all know there is no easy answer to climate change. But, business and industry are part of the solution - developing innovative new products and services, and leading the way in cutting emissions, to propel us towards a low carbon future.

“Firms need confidence to invest in this future though, so the Climate Change Conference is a golden opportunity to create the long-term frameworks that businesses crave. This means a clear sense of direction, support for carbon pricing that can drive investment and getting finance and technology flowing.

“So much effort has been put into agreeing frameworks ready for Paris, we simply cannot afford to fall at the last hurdle, and delay a lasting, global plan for climate action. All businesses, especially energy-intensive industries, will be looking for an international deal which helps create a level playing field, and that keeps the UK competitive.”

“Clear sense of direction.” Let’s hope that the government one day comes to understand that short-notice changes of policy discourage investment. Maybe we should have a Ministry of the Future to concentrate on the long term. Sounds a silly idea? Ian Birrell, writing in the i newspaper, describes the Ministry of the Future which has been set up by the Swedish government to look 50 years ahead. Its head, Kristina Persson, says, “There is a need to see any dangers in time and create a narrative that holds together.” There are policies where the long view is essential. Climate change is one. Benefits, energy, pensions, health and social care all demand a long-term view.  Looking beyond the short term might have made us think twice about the interminable debt burden that is PFI. We now have a National Infrastructure Commission. That could be a step in the right direction, but we need a body with a wide perspective as well as a long view, and we need politicians who will listen. 

Meanwhile, are you taking the long view of your business prospects? Climate change, energy shortages, supply chain pressures - have you factored them into your business plan? Yes the future is always uncertain, but there’s nothing more uncertain than a future unexplored. 

Why not give me a call and we can talk through the type of things which could put your organisation at risk and decide how best to be prepared. Maybe we could talk about putting the issues into focus through scenario planning. The number is 07803 616877  or drop me an email at mail@anthony-day.com. Give me a call and a cup of coffee and I’ll tell you what I think. If you call me now we can get something in the diary before Christmas. Oh, and I’ll expect a mince pie as well. Black Friday? Cyber Monday? This is the bargain of the week. Here’s to Sustainable 2016.

Yes, that’s it, another episode of the Sustainable Futures Report in the can. I’m off to the North West sustainable Business Quarterly meeting in Manchester shortly, kindly hosted by Anthesis anthesisgroup.com at the Bruntwood Tower. I usually meet interesting people there. I’ll tell you about it. 

But for now, this is Anthony Day and that was the Sustainable Futures Report.